DANIEL, O. Z., HEON, S. P., DONNELLY, C. A., BERNARD, H., ORME, C. D. L. & EWERS, R. M. (2024)
Rapid spread of African Swine Fever across Borneo.
BIORXIV (Preprint). https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.06.20.597708
Abstract:
African Swine Fever (ASF) reached the island of Borneo at the end of 2020. The first mortalities occurred in wild bearded pigs (Sus barbatus) in Sabah, north-east Borneo. The virus then began to spread across the island but, confounded by COVID 19 lockdowns the spread was difficult to monitor on the ground. The Babi Hutan Project was launched in April 2021 to gather data on pig sightings using citizen science. Here we bring together the data from this project and other online sources to show how the virus encompassed almost the entire island within a one-year period. The speed of spread appears to increase with time following an exponential model: we estimate an average speed of spread of 0.89km/day after 100 days since the first observation and at 4.28km/day after 400 days. We include recommendations of next steps for the bearded pigs of Borneo.
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